Even before the Lunar New Year (LNY) rush of 2025, rates to the West Coast were higher than those observed before the 2024 LNY, which were seen in January during the Red Sea crisis.
Reports indicate that some carriers are attempting to implement significant General Rate Increases (GRIs) at the beginning of the month. A considerable amount of inventory had already been built up through frontloading before the October strike, and the window for moving shipments from Asia to the East Coast before the strike deadline is closing. There is still likely a few months of runway before the tariff increases take effect. While prices may rise later in December or early January in anticipation of the LNY rush, these variables could make it difficult to sustain rate hikes early in the month.
Rates between Asia and Europe were flat last week but have started to increase this week. Daily rates to the Mediterranean have neared $6,000 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) in December's GRIs, marking a $1,000 increase per FEU compared to late November. If these increases continue, they could be attributed to both an early start to pre-LNY demand and carriers' efficient capacity management, including more blank sailings. Shippers to the Mediterranean, facing longer lead times due to ongoing Red Sea diversions, are advised to move essential orders before LNY. If they miss the pre-holiday window, they may face delays in receiving fresh shipments.
With MSC adding more port pairs to its standalone services and the Gemini Cooperation already taking reservations for its new hub-and-spoke model, carriers are continuing to announce service changes set to take effect with the alliance restructuring in February. Despite these developments, ex-China rates to North America and Europe have not yet risen, according to Freightos Air Index data. The large movement of freighter capacity to ex-Asia routes in preparation for Q4 is another important factor contributing to the relatively mild peak season, despite continued surging e-commerce volumes. Additionally, some shippers and forwarders have frontloaded and pre-secured capacity.
