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Russian Attacks on Ships in Ukraine Threaten Global Grain Supply

Recent attacks on merchant ships in Ukrainian waters are raising concerns about global grain supply and dry bulk markets, warns BIMCO analyst Filipe Gouveia.

Russian missile strikes have targeted five merchant ships in Ukrainian ports and waters since September 2024, marking the first such attacks since November 2023. Filipe Gouveia, a shipping analyst at BIMCO, warns that continued attacks could disrupt 1% of the world’s dry bulk exports.

While Ukraine has increased dry bulk shipments through a coastal corridor near Odesa, these volumes remain 27% lower than pre-war levels. Gouveia notes that the corridor has been crucial in stabilizing food prices, contributing to a 15% drop in the FAO cereal price index this year. “If Ukraine’s seaborne exports were disrupted again, it would not only affect food prices, but also the dry bulk market,” he said.

Ukraine plays a key role in global grain markets, accounting for 7% of seaborne grain exports and ranking as the fourth-largest maize exporter. Most Ukrainian cargoes are carried by panamax and handysize ships, with disruptions potentially hitting shipments to Asia and the Mediterranean hardest.

Looking ahead to 2025, Gouveia expects Ukraine’s dry bulk exports to decline further due to a projected 19% drop in maize yields. He warns, "This will contribute to an expected stagnation in global grain shipments in 2025."

Despite rising war risk insurance costs, the impact on export volumes remains limited for now, but future disruptions could still pose challenges for global food security.