In 2024, shipping volumes on Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) reached 37.9 million tons, a 1.6 million ton increase from 2023, according to Rosatom, the nuclear power company overseeing the route’s development. Rosatom’s leader, Aleksei Likhachev, called this a record-breaking achievement, noting a significant rise in transit shipments. A total of 92 vessels traveled the entire route, carrying over 3 million tons of goods, another record.
However, these figures still fall short of the ambitious goals set by President Vladimir Putin, who had aimed for 80 million tons of shipments by 2024. This target is part of a broader vision outlined in Russia's Arctic Strategy, projecting 90 million tons by 2030 and 130 million tons by 2035. Putin's plan also emphasizes a major role for liquefied natural gas (LNG), with 91 million tons expected to be shipped by 2035.
The path to these goals has been made more difficult by Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine and the international sanctions that followed. These factors have hindered Russia’s ability to build the advanced ice-class ships required for Arctic shipping. As a result, Russia has resorted to using aging, often unsuitable vessels, including oil tankers without ice-class capabilities.
Despite the risks, the Northern Sea Route Administration, part of Rosatom, has not rejected any vessels in 2024. According to Likhachev, 1,312 applications for sailing on the route were assessed, with no rejections issued. The lack of ice-class ships raises safety concerns, and though there were no incidents in 2024, the remote nature of the route and tight Russian control limit independent inspections.
Stretching from Novaya Zemlya to the Bering Strait, the Northern Sea Route offers a shorter alternative to the Suez Canal for shipping between the North Atlantic and Pacific. Looking ahead, Rosatom plans to expand the NSR into a "Big Northern Sea Route," stretching from Kaliningrad to Kamchatka, further expanding Russia's Arctic shipping ambitions.